Hikvision (002415): Significant increase in stocking; operating conditions improved quarter by quarter

Hikvision (002415): Significant increase in stocking; operating conditions improved quarter by quarter

Event: On October 19, the company announced the third quarter of 2019 report.

The company achieved revenue of 159 in Q3 2019.

160,000 yuan, an increase of 23 in ten years.

12%; net profit attributable to mother 38.

110,000 yuan, an increase of 17 in ten years.

31%; net profit after deduction to non-mother 36.

67 ppm, an increase of 16 in ten years.


The company achieved revenue of 398 in the first three quarters.

390,000 yuan, an increase of 17 in ten years.

86%; net profit attributable to mother is 80.

27 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.

54%; net profit of non-return to mother is 77.

89 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.


  Opinion: The growth rate of revenue and profit in Q3 2019 continues to pick up. Domestic business has stabilized. The domestic market has stabilized. In terms of business, EBG and SMBG are growing well. PBG has gone through a period of short-term depression in public security traffic. It is expected thatWarm up.

Overseas business has entered a stage of steady growth, and the U.S. entity list boots have landed, and some wait-and-see overseas customers may be differentiated.

In terms of different markets, the negative growth trend in the US market continued. The Turkish market was breached by the impact of US economic sanctions, and other regions were relatively stable.

The company will adjust its business strategy according to the actual conditions of each country and region, continue to cultivate intensively, and digest short-term changes.

  The amount of inventories increased rapidly, and the material replacement work continued to advance. The company’s list of supplemented entities has officially taken effect. From the three quarterly report, the prepayments, inventory, and bills payable increased and increased by 51 earlier.

82%, 71.

96%, 133.

47%, in terms of operating cash flow, the increase in the first three quarters was 1.

240,000 yuan, scored 26 in the same period in 2018.

4.6 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 95.


Complemented by relevant US export control regulations, most US suppliers have now resumed supply.

The company continues to replace materials to ensure that there are a large number of sound preparatory plans for product supply.

At present, the company’s operating conditions are stable, and it can continuously provide high-quality products and services to domestic and foreign customers.

  Increase investment in research and development, and establish a comprehensive layout of industrial funds.

07 million yuan, an increase of 30 in ten years.

The main reason for the rapid growth rate of 20% is: 1) Preparations should be made in advance for the list of entities, including material replacement, scheme design, etc. 2) The sinking of R & D tasks and expansion of R & D personnel

Recently, the company announced that it intends to co-invest with the CLP Fund and other funds to establish the Haikang Smart Fund, which will invest around the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain and extend industries, including: smart cities, integrated circuits, IoT system solutions, robotics, automotive electronics, etc.In our opinion, this is of great significance for the company to ensure the stability of the upstream supply chain, develop the industrial ecosystem, and continue to develop steadily.

In terms of innovative business, the unlisted entity list incidents of subsidiaries such as “fluorite” have been affected and still maintain rapid growth.

  Investment advice and profit forecast As a global security leader, the company has comprehensive advantages in technology, products and solutions. The company will maintain steady development without any change in the overall demand space.

The company’s operating income is expected to be 600 in 2019-2021.

96 ppm, 727.

05 ppm, 882.90 trillion, net profit attributable to mother is 128.

82 ppm, 151.

8.3 billion, 177.

27 trillion, corresponding to 21 for PE.

74, 18.

45, 15.

85 times.

Give the company an estimate of 25 times in 2019 and the corresponding target price is 35.

00 yuan.

  Maintain “Buy” investment rating.

  Risks indicate that the macroeconomic development has fallen short of expectations, the Xueliang project and other policies have fallen short 武汉夜生活网 of expectations, the overseas market has fallen short of expectations, the supply of core components has fallen short of expectations, the development of innovative businesses has fallen short of expectations, and increased competition risks.