Yuantong Express (600233) 2019 first quarter report commented: the growth rate of net profit after deductions reached 19.

4% optimistic about 19 years of continuous improvement in cost highlights “recommended” rating

Yuantong Express (600233) 2019 first quarter report commented: the growth rate of net profit after deductions reached 19.

4% optimistic about 19 years of continuous improvement in cost highlights “recommended” rating

Company announcement for the first quarter of 2019: performance growth increased by 16%, non-net profit growth rate was 19%.

4% financial data: operating income 64.

44 ppm, an increase of 20 in ten years.

65%; net profit attributable to mother is 3.

65 ppm, an increase of 15 in ten years.

66%; deduct non-attributed net profit 3.

570,000 yuan, an increase of 19 in ten years.

41%.

Operating data: The share of express delivery business has returned to the head level, and the growth rate continues to lead the industry.

Business volume: completed in the first quarter16.

5.7 billion pieces, a growth rate of 39.

2%, a 22% increase over the industry.

5% high 16.

7pct, the market share has increased quarterly from 2018 to present, and the company’s market share in Q1 of 2017, 2018 and 2019 was 12 respectively.

6%, 13.

1%, 13.

6%.

Single ticket revenue: 3 in the first quarter.

35 yuan, RMB 10.

6%.

Taking into account that the company has adjusted its settlement policy since July 2018, it will affect single ticket revenue and costs in the same direction.

After the adjustment factor of the settlement policy is eliminated, the single ticket revenue actually decreased by about 5%.

Express income: 55 in the first quarter.

520,000 yuan, an increase of 24.

5%, slightly lower than the growth rate of business volume, higher than the industry growth over the same period (21.

4%).

Other business income: Other business income (we estimate mainly for Yuantong International) was about 8 in the first quarter.

92 ppm, compared with 8 for the same period last year.

US $ 8.3 billion, a slight increase of 1% over the past year. We estimate that Yuantong International ‘s contribution to its mother ‘s net profit has also remained basically the same twice, that is, 19Q1 contributed about 760 to the parent company ‘s attributable net profit of 490 million.The net profit is about 3.

5.2 billion, the previous growth rate was 19.

7%.

The cost control effect is obvious, and we continue to be optimistic about the company’s cost competitiveness.

1) The gross profit margin for 2019Q1 is 12.

1%, a slight decrease of 0 a year.

2pct.

We estimate that the cost of a single ticket decreases by about zero.16-0.

About 2 yuan, continued the cost reduction in 2018H2.

2) Outlook for the second quarter: Cost reduction will expand.

At 18H2, the company’s single ticket cost has improved significantly from H1, thanks to the company’s self-operated ratio at mainline transportation locations, the proportion of large vehicles, and the automation rate at transit locations.

We expect this trend to continue in 2019H1, but the Q1 business volume is significantly lower than the peak season of the previous year, which puts pressure on production capacity, so the improvement in costs indicates that the company’s cost control efforts have penetrated.

The observation of Q2 traffic is usually 1 of Q1.
.

About 3 times, the maximum production capacity will 杭州桑拿网 be better than Q1, so it is expected that the cost reduction of Q2 will continue to expand.

3) Transforming the company’s costs will continue to improve rapidly, and the company’s cost competitiveness will continue to increase. It is expected to drive the terminal business volume to maintain high growth and achieve a healthy volume-price cycle path.

Investment suggestions: 1) Optimize the competitive pattern of Tongda e-commerce express delivery: In terms of the competitive pattern, Tongda has established an overall cost moat: the Tongda system has built a certain cost advantage moat, and the threat of new entrants has been greatly reduced; the industry is expected toTowards a benign volume-price cycle, the concentration is further concentrated on the head.

2) We are optimistic about Yuantong’s current follow-up cost improvement and estimated increase: Yuantong’s single ticket costs have room for continued decline in 2019, and we maintain our forecast of profit for 2019-21 to 22.

2 billion, 27.

8 billion, 34.

300 million, corresponding to 19, 21 and 19 times PE, respectively, 14, 14 and 11 times, which is lower than the industry hub, maintaining the “recommended” level.

Risk warning: The economy has grown sharply, consumption has fallen sharply, and price war competition has intensified.