Makihara (002714) Annual Report Commentary: Performance in line with expectations usher in a period of high explosive growth

Makihara (002714) Annual Report Commentary: Performance in line with expectations usher in a period of high explosive growth

Event: The company 杭州桑拿 announced its 2019 results: the report increased and the company achieved 202 operating income.

21 ppm, an increase of 51 in ten years.

04%, net profit attributable to owners of the parent company.

140,000 yuan, an increase of 1075 in ten years.

37%; non-net profit attributable to the parent company is 59.

380,000 yuan, an increase of 1186 in ten years.

55%.

; The company plans to transfer to all shareholders 7 shares for every 10 shares5.

5 yuan.

Comments: 1.

Costs started to decline in the fourth quarter and are expected to decrease further in the future.

The company’s primary sales of live pigs in 2019 is 1025.

330,000 heads, six years -6.

89%, of which 867 were commercial pig sales.

910,000 heads, 154 piglets sold.

710,000 heads, sales of breeding pigs 2.

710,000 heads.

The average price of primary commodity pigs in 2019 is about 20.

21 yuan / kg, +74 for ten years.

48%, according to our breakdown, it is estimated that the full cost of growing fat pigs in 2019 is about 13.

5 yuan / kg, average head profit is about 579 yuan.

Since the company’s fourth quarter of 2019, the cost has started to fall. According to estimates, the total cost of fat pigs in the fourth quarter is about 13.

45 yuan / kg, down 4 from the third quarter.

9%, far ahead of the average level of the industry. Through the gradual release of the subsequent company’s production capacity, the cost is expected to gradually decrease.

2.

The production capacity is expanding rapidly, and it is expected that the volume will be higher in the future.

As of the end of 2019, ① the company’s productive biological assets were 38.

3.5 billion, an increase of 35.

18%, an annual increase of 162.
.

45% have 128 sow breeding stocks.

320,000 heads, 720,000 reserve sows, an increase of 42% and 20% compared to the end of the third quarter.

②Consumable biological assets are 51.

1.4 billion, an increase of 16 over the beginning of the period.

25%.

At the end of 2019, the company had an inventory of about 10 million pigs (including sows), which is still increasing every month.

③ The investment in fixed assets is 188.

64 ppm, an increase of 39 per year.
27%, ④ 85 under construction.
99 ‰, an increase of 133 every year.

65%; ⑤The capital expansion in 19 years was 131.

21 ppm, significant expenditure in the fourth quarter alone.

6.3 billion, with capital expenditures expected to exceed 20 billion in 2020, replacing the basis for future high growth.

3.

Investment rating and recommendations: We believe that this non-plague epidemic will bring great changes to the industry. The next 3-5 years will be the golden development period for stakeholders. Due to the normalization of the epidemic, pig prices will continue to be high and the profit cycleEnterprises that have been stretched and have a complete biosafety prevention and control system and cost management and control capabilities will fully benefit from the upgrade of this industry. We continue to be optimistic about the company’s control and control and cost control capabilities.The company’s performance will be accelerated.

The company’s operating income is expected to be 674 from 2020-2022.

6/792.

0/891.

0 million yuan, net profit attributable to mother is 388.

9/414.

0/345.

500 million, with EPS of 17.

6/18.

8/15.

7 yuan, the corresponding PE is 6.

6x / 6.

2x / 7.

4x, maintaining “Highly Recommended” rating.

Risk reminder: The pig production volume is less than expected, the price of pigs rises less than expected, the epidemic continues, and the price of feed ingredients increases